Tourism – Wellness: Asian Opportunities

The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) is maintaining its target for inbound visitors in 2030 at 60 million. ⁽¹⁾ This compares to achieved numbers of 31.88 million in 2019 and 4.12 million in 2020.

In the attempt to hit the target, the government will be promoting promising growth areas.

The JNTO spokesmen expects “adventure tourism” to be popular as people escape the confines of their homes. In addition, “sustainable tourism”, wherein tourism businesses seek to preserve their local environment and community, is expected to be a broadening multi-year trend worldwide.

Both activities above can be experienced in Japan’s 34 National Parks. A good place to start planning a trip is the National Parks Discovery Center at Shinjuku Gyoen.

In 2019, inbound tourists made 6.67 million visits to national parks. This implies one in five visitors to Japan visited a national park.

However, visits were highly concentrated with the top four national parks welcoming three-quarters of the total visits, implying that there is still significant potential for growth.

For more details on Japan’s forests and parks, please click on the link here.

A reality check: In our book, J-Wellness 2020, we made the case for Japan’s inbound tourism market having achieved maturity. Our 2030 forecast of 44.5 million is based on a recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic by 2025 and trend growth in line with an estimated global tourism market growth rate of 3% pa. The analysis is available here. With the recognition of vaccine passports currently being dependent on which vaccine was administered, the normalization of travel from, for example, China by 2025 is looking less certain. Visitors to Japan from China totaled 9.59 million in 2019, and 1.07 million in 2020.

References

Despite COVID-19’s lingering impact, Japan sticks to 2030 tourism target, Japan Times, 28 September 2021: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/09/27/business/jnto-2030-tourism-target/

Travel group JTB has published a survey on this year’s summer season (July 20 to August 31) domestic travel intentions. ⁽¹⁾

Domestic travel expenditures are forecast to be ¥1.32 trillion. The chart below puts this in context. 2021 is forecast to be down 59% versus the pre-covid 2012-2019 average expenditure of ¥3.22 trillion.

2020 summer season expenditures were ¥1.22 trillion.

Ominous indications include:

Schools are on holiday for the full period this year, in contrast to 2020 when many schools stayed open for weeks to catch up with missed studies. Precluded last year, more families were expected to travel this year.
International travel is still impractical for the second year. Holidaying domestically was expected to benefit.
The survey included intentions by age group. The 60 and over group is now 70% vaccinated, and yet has the lowest “Will go/Will probably go” travel intentions at just 14%. The young, 29 and under, have the highest at 31%.

Pre-Covid-19, the summer season was some 20-25% of annual domestic trips.

In our book, “J-Wellness 2020: The economics, career options, and investment opportunities” we forecasted that inbound tourism would take five years, to 2025, to recover. It is beginning to look like domestic travel will need a similar length of time.

References:

July Survey Predicts 40 million Domestic Tourists for Japan in Summer, Nippon.com, 6 August 2021