Tag: Covid-19

Japan’s two largest “Covid-19 cases” waves were autumn 2022 and late 2022 to early 2023.

The same pattern applies to Japan’s daily new deaths.

For charts, please click here.

In summary, Japan’s relatively good 2020 and 2021 experience deteriorated during 2022 into 2023.

It is important therefore to update the data that appeared in our book: Wellness Topics: insights from Japan, section two, chapter one: “Why Japan has had relatively low Covid-19 deaths”.

G7 Countries plus South Korea. Covid-19-related Deaths per One Million Population

In terms of policy and people’s behaviors in Japan, a recent research study concluded that the intervention effects e.g. the requirements of the State of Emergencies (SOE) and quasi-SOEs, had positive effects on the adoption of preventive behaviors among individuals, including handwashing, working from home, avoiding traveling and social events.

However, the contribution of information effects, alerting people to the virus threat, was much larger than that of intervention effects, suggesting the importance of how and when information should be communicated to the public to prevent the spread of infection. ^{(1, 2, 3, 4, 5)}

We await studies examining the importance of the pre-pandemic health of the respective populations, e.g., with respect to the prevalence of obesity, diabetes, kidney disease, and so on.

References:

1. Intervention and information effects at the individual level during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, by Mateus Silva Chang, Isamu Yamamoto, November 2023
2. Japan’s voluntary lockdown, by Watanabe T, Yabu T., June 2021
3. Japan’s voluntary lockdown: further evidence based on age-specific mobile location data, by Watanabe T, Yabu T., 2021
4. Covid-19 Lockdown Cost/Benefits: A Critical Assessment of the Literature, by Allen DW, 2022
5. The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social-Distancing Behavior in the United States, by Abouk R, Heydari B, 2021

A study published in The Lancet ⁽¹⁾ estimates that globally over 2020-21, 18.2 million excess deaths occurred. 191 countries and territories were included.

Japan’s relatively good experience is shown below.

Estimated excess mortality rate per 100,000 ⁽¹⁾

Excess mortality due to the Covid-19 pandemic is defined as the net difference between the number of deaths during the pandemic (measured by observed or estimated all-cause mortality) and the number of deaths that would be expected based on past trends in all-cause mortality. The study adjusted for late registration and anomalies such as heat waves and used six models to estimate expected mortality.

In addition to estimation issues, the difference between excess mortality and reported Covid-19 deaths might be a function of underdiagnosis due to insufficient testing, reporting challenges, or higher than expected mortality from other diseases due to pandemic-related changes in behaviors or reduced access to health care or other essential services. ⁽¹⁾

For more data, please see the original article or click here.

References:

1. Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21, by Dr Haidong Wang, University of Washington, published in The Lancet, March 2022