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Estimating Excess Mortality due to the Covid-19 Pandemic

A study published in The Lancet (1) estimates that globally over 2020-21, 18.2 million excess deaths occurred. 191 countries and territories were included.

Japan’s relatively good experience is shown below.

Estimated excess mortality rate per 100,000 (1)

Global120.3
Western Europe140.0
Denmark94.1
France124.2
Germany120.5
Italy227.4
Spain186.7
Sweden91.2
United Kingdom126.8
USA179.3
Canada60.5
Japan44.1
Brazil186.9
India152.5

Excess mortality due to the Covid-19 pandemic is defined as the net difference between the number of deaths during the pandemic (measured by observed or estimated all-cause mortality) and the number of deaths that would be expected based on past trends in all-cause mortality. The study adjusted for late registration and anomalies such as heat waves and used six models to estimate expected mortality.

In addition to estimation issues, the difference between excess mortality and reported Covid-19 deaths might be a function of underdiagnosis due to insufficient testing, reporting challenges, or higher than expected mortality from other diseases due to pandemic-related changes in behaviors or reduced access to health care or other essential services. (1)

For more data, please see the original article or click here.

References:

  1. Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21, by Dr Haidong Wang, University of Washington, published in The Lancet, March 2022

By Peter Eadon-Clarke

Advisor, Conceptasia Inc.
Peter Eadon-Clarke is a specialist in J-Wellness, product and technique trends, wellness tourism and the Stress Check Program. Peter has extensive experience managing complex multicultural teams; roles held during 14 years at Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) limited included branch manager, global head of economics and Tokyo head of research. Previously, positions included UBS Trust and Banking in Tokyo as chief investment officer, CIO at Sumitomo Life Investment and CIO for the Pacific Basin at GT (now Invesco).