Travel group JTB has published a survey on this year’s summer season (July 20 to August 31) domestic travel intentions. (1)
Domestic travel expenditures are forecast to be ¥1.32 trillion. The chart below puts this in context. 2021 is forecast to be down 59% versus the pre-covid 2012-2019 average expenditure of ¥3.22 trillion.
2020 summer season expenditures were ¥1.22 trillion.
Ominous indications include:
- Schools are on holiday for the full period this year, in contrast to 2020 when many schools stayed open for weeks to catch up with missed studies. Precluded last year, more families were expected to travel this year.
- International travel is still impractical for the second year. Holidaying domestically was expected to benefit.
- The survey included intentions by age group. The 60 and over group is now 70% vaccinated, and yet has the lowest “Will go/Will probably go” travel intentions at just 14%. The young, 29 and under, have the highest at 31%.
Pre-Covid-19, the summer season was some 20-25% of annual domestic trips.
In our book, “J-Wellness 2020: The economics, career options, and investment opportunities” we forecasted that inbound tourism would take five years, to 2025, to recover. It is beginning to look like domestic travel will need a similar length of time.
References:
- July Survey Predicts 40 million Domestic Tourists for Japan in Summer, Nippon.com, 6 August 2021